0x1d3c08718F4969C1e33E33584c46559212a4B1aA-1771770082010
0x1d3c08718f4969c1e33e33584c46559212a4b1aa
- Realised P&L
- $-351.21
- Volume
- $12.3k
- Markets traded
- 463
- Open portfolio
- $65.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded463
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.705 | 1.000 | $36.51 | +$10.77 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.780 | 1.000 | $16.92 | +$3.72 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.737 | 1.000 | $12.01 | +$3.16 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.558 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$18.90 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.95 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.65 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET · Down | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$63.92at 0.451Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11?
- +$29.25at 0.187Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8?
- +$14.84at 0.979Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on May 29?
- +$12.75at 0.286Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?
- +$12.59at 0.964Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 06:47 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 25? | SELL | 0.0254 | $0.25 |
| 09-25 06:35 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.65 |
| 09-25 06:33 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 16:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5299999883 | $20.00 |
| 09-19 16:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET | SELL | 0.056668 | $1.42 |
| 09-19 16:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 05:57 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on September 10? | BUY | 0.9789999977 | $3.00 |
| 09-10 05:57 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on September 10? | BUY | 0.9769999976 | $4.00 |
| 09-09 22:16 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.9889999977 | $3.00 |
| 09-09 22:16 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.9889999977 | $3.00 |
| 09-09 22:16 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.9889999985 | $4.00 |
| 09-09 12:44 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on September 9? | BUY | 0.9909999993 | $3.00 |
| 09-09 12:43 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on September 9? | BUY | 0.992 | $3.00 |
| 09-09 12:43 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on September 9? | BUY | 0.9789999953 | $4.00 |
| 09-09 07:16 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C or below on September 9? | BUY | 0.99 | $3.00 |