PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Donknuth

0x1d2db6dffe029b3697d878197cbaab8a587689c0

Realised P&L
$97.97
Volume
$310.1k
Markets traded
7,787
Open portfolio
$291.29

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded7,787
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration12.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration53.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? · Yes0.3260.385$157.00+$23.91
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.2300.175$56.91−$17.77
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0600.040$50.86−$25.22
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1590.105$26.53−$13.60
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET · Down0.5630.000$0.00−$16.71
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET · Down0.5500.000$0.00−$0.61
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET · Up0.4700.000$0.00−$5.17
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET · Up0.5500.000$0.00−$2.60
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET · Down0.4540.000$0.00−$11.80
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET · Up0.6430.000$0.00−$13.50
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET · Down0.5200.000$0.00−$4.68
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET · Down0.4200.000$0.00−$2.10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET · Down0.4400.000$0.00−$5.28
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET · Down0.4200.000$0.00−$5.04
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET · Down0.7000.000$0.00−$7.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-07 10:30Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?BUY0.23$39.05
09-07 10:30Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?BUY0.06$45.34
09-02 17:52Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?BUY0.1588402011$40.13
09-02 16:49Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?BUY0.2292652168$35.63
09-02 16:49Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?BUY0.05959357$30.73
09-02 16:49Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?BUY0.32637077$133.09
06-30 11:07Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ETBUY0.67$7.37
06-30 11:06Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ETBUY0.85$4.16
06-30 11:03Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ETBUY0.92$7.36
06-30 10:57Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ETBUY0.94$2.88
06-30 10:57Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ETBUY0.82$5.74
06-30 10:56Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ETBUY0.77$2.59
06-30 10:55Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ETBUY0.53$2.65
06-30 10:53Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ETBUY0.76$2.33
06-30 10:50Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ETBUY0.6$0.55