ToastedSocks
0x1d18710a75c1180b49360b6e02a2f06861f1a9c2
- Realised P&L
- $12.93
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $209.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No | 0.944 | 0.935 | $54.15 | −$0.52 |
| Will the Republican Party win the SD-AL House seat? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.950 | $54.05 | +$0.57 |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? · Yes | 0.961 | 0.974 | $53.78 | +$0.72 |
| Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No | 0.979 | 0.956 | $47.70 | −$1.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.45at 0.932Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
- +$1.19at 0.978Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- +$1.05at 0.954Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
- +$0.96at 0.931Macron out by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.91at 0.981Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 10:23 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $50.92 |
| 04-07 12:41 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9319999979 | $19.93 |