chavezjonathon
0x1d185d1df7ce2ac6cd1d5e7b83ebb7738b9bd398
- Realised P&L
- $-47.99
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $60.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: North Texas (-27.5) · North Texas | 0.550 | 0.560 | $25.14 | +$0.45 |
| Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? · No | 0.770 | 0.825 | $21.99 | +$1.47 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.675 | $12.91 | +$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.68at 0.570Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$34.93at 0.410Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$16.92at 0.640Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$8.20at 0.737Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 8?
- +$6.28at 0.750Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 10:33 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.7267883837 | $22.63 |
| 01-31 13:59 | Will Chainlink dip to $6 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.92 |
| 01-30 18:25 | Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $9.46 |
| 01-30 16:45 | Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999704 | $21.30 |
| 01-30 14:45 | Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.37 |
| 01-30 13:06 | Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $56.11 |
| 12-30 11:40 | Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.81 |
| 12-30 11:20 | Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.25 |
| 12-30 10:58 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.37 |
| 12-30 09:13 | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.26 |
| 12-29 19:47 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999783 | $14.89 |
| 12-29 18:28 | Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.997 | $59.31 |
| 10-30 19:46 | Will Tencent have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $38.90 |
| 10-30 18:38 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $35.96 |
| 09-29 16:02 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.995999972 | $13.92 |