sandersnicholas
0x1ce4d9e8a03c0d9912a53414e69cd665507c2e70
- Realised P&L
- $-18.96
- Volume
- $13.2k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $33.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams? · No | 0.870 | 0.955 | $17.50 | +$1.56 |
| Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2 · Yes | 0.591 | 0.593 | $10.10 | +$0.03 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 September 28-October 4? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.285 | $5.48 | −$4.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.75at 0.370Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07?
- +$5.21at 0.590Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13?
- +$4.82at 0.998Will Jack Dorsey confirm he is Satoshi before May?
- +$4.37at 0.982Will Lando Norris win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
- +$0.63at 0.510Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:23 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999805 | $20.58 |
| 01-30 15:21 | Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.72 |
| 01-30 15:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999885 | $17.78 |
| 01-30 14:42 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $24.97 |
| 01-30 12:20 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $33.18 |
| 12-30 16:36 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $3.47 |
| 12-30 14:52 | Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.23 |
| 12-30 11:50 | Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999697 | $24.02 |
| 12-29 19:46 | Will XRP reach $3.20 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9979998791 | $4.36 |
| 12-29 19:35 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989998758 | $7.11 |
| 12-29 18:38 | Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.74 |
| 12-29 18:36 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $58.22 |
| 10-30 17:51 | Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.98 |
| 10-30 17:37 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.99 |
| 10-30 17:18 | Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $37.30 |