Kiroka
0x1cb532ad6a13f003463305ceb10ad3421997b2c4
- Realised P&L
- $104.92
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $362.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.997 | $220.74 | +$6.06 |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.979 | 1.000 | $89.95 | +$1.83 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.969 | 1.000 | $50.01 | +$1.55 |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? · No | 0.160 | 0.415 | $2.08 | +$1.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.18at 0.954Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
- +$15.12at 0.914Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?
- +$15.07at 0.971Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
- +$13.94at 0.952Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31?
- +$7.45at 0.938Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 15:17 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 15:13 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9774428571 | $50.00 |
| 09-22 08:25 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.60 |
| 09-22 06:14 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30? | BUY | 0.9199999902 | $60.00 |
| 09-06 20:23 | Will Russia enter Serhiivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.9592006658 | $24.00 |
| 09-06 20:17 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? | BUY | 0.9780498999 | $238.00 |
| 08-27 13:02 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9649994017 | $1.00 |
| 08-18 18:58 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.994 | $30.00 |
| 08-11 18:25 | Will Russia enter Stinky by September 30? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $10.00 |
| 08-11 18:20 | Will Russia enter Stinky by September 30? | BUY | 0.98 | $50.00 |
| 08-11 18:19 | Will Russia enter Stinky by August 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $31.00 |
| 08-11 18:17 | Will Russia enter Stinky by August 31? | BUY | 0.9465111593 | $100.00 |
| 08-06 17:29 | Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31? | BUY | 0.9600572108 | $62.00 |
| 08-06 17:28 | Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31? | BUY | 0.9504949799 | $10.00 |
| 08-06 17:23 | Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $11.00 |