Jiang2025
0x1ca4fd853a8eea337a93ed969338b55a655bf2d4
- Realised P&L
- $-32.1k
- Volume
- $2.06M
- Markets traded
- 153
- Open portfolio
- $19.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded153
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.722 | 0.680 | $6.6k | −$404.96 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.723 | 0.720 | $6.4k | −$30.50 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · No | 0.741 | 0.625 | $3.9k | −$719.00 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? · No | 0.357 | 0.265 | $1.3k | −$459.32 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? · No | 0.660 | 0.815 | $814.98 | +$155.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.138Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.5kat 0.699Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- +$2.0kat 0.844Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12?
- +$1.8kat 0.841Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs
- +$1.2kat 0.237Fed rate hike in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 17:18 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in August? | SELL | 0.999 | $0.23 |
| 08-23 02:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in August? | SELL | 0.998 | $0.17 |
| 08-19 17:22 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August? | SELL | 0.999 | $15.3k |
| 08-04 16:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August? | SELL | 0.99 | $0.18 |
| 07-30 18:23 | GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.0k |
| 07-30 17:27 | GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.998 | $291.75 |
| 07-30 15:30 | GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.70 |
| 06-28 03:42 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.58 |
| 06-18 19:56 | o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.1k |
| 06-18 18:42 | o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.1k |
| 06-10 14:05 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5117467173 | $1.8k |
| 06-04 01:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? | SELL | 0.0309181307 | $247.34 |
| 06-03 17:12 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $31.25 |
| 06-03 14:57 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $7.73 |
| 06-03 08:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? | BUY | 0.76 | $212.28 |