imcultured
0x1c557495a1186c489bfd814203794a1d9ecb8ade
- Realised P&L
- $-3.0k
- Volume
- $146.7k
- Markets traded
- 312
- Open portfolio
- $232.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded312
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weed rescheduled by December 31? · No | 0.659 | 0.837 | $174.83 | +$37.10 |
| Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.052 | $48.93 | −$137.47 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.650 | 0.915 | $3.66 | +$1.06 |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.800 | $3.20 | +$1.28 |
| 2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026? · No | 0.780 | 1.000 | $2.00 | +$0.44 |
| Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.007 | $0.13 | −$2.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$335.92at 0.430Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 13 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?
- +$328.02at 0.520Critical Discord Incident by June 30, 2026?
- +$265.68at 0.110Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?
- +$145.47at 0.210Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?
- +$126.96at 0.380Will Trump post "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" on Truth Social this week?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 02:55 | Weed rescheduled by December 31? | SELL | 0.364 | $186.00 |
| 04-10 14:16 | Weed rescheduled by December 31? | BUY | 0.659 | $474.48 |
| 04-09 09:36 | 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $221.20 |
| 04-09 09:34 | 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $66.64 |
| 03-31 01:44 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000? | SELL | 0.51 | $356.49 |
| 03-30 06:03 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000? | BUY | 0.69 | $482.31 |
| 03-25 17:10 | Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 29? | SELL | 0.01 | $6.64 |
| 03-25 07:59 | Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 29? | BUY | 0.73 | $484.72 |
| 03-24 06:06 | Will G2 Esports qualify to MSI 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $295.11 |
| 03-23 11:08 | 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $257.00 |
| 03-21 18:14 | Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $36.61 |
| 03-21 18:13 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | SELL | 0.31 | $229.40 |
| 03-20 17:44 | Will G2 Esports qualify to MSI 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $797.89 |
| 03-20 16:14 | Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $83.68 |
| 03-20 06:08 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.62 | $458.80 |