0x1c3DC2273D64eBE2A99fA39dD8883130c8792FF5-1767525426111
0x1c3dc2273d64ebe2a99fa39dd8883130c8792ff5
- Realised P&L
- $4.0k
- Volume
- $360.9k
- Markets traded
- 1,255
- Open portfolio
- $539.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,255
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration34.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$563.76at 0.240MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$448.35at 0.847Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
- +$432.40at 0.832Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
- +$419.59at 0.787Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$408.43at 0.166Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 20:29 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0105714286 | $0.74 |
| 10-29 17:55 | Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.4655943825 | $126.98 |
| 10-29 17:54 | Viktor Orbán arrested by...? | SELL | 0.8503139428 | $46.04 |
| 10-29 17:54 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | SELL | 0.993 | $244.44 |
| 10-29 17:54 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.7636921429 | $534.58 |
| 10-27 20:33 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.5309426466 | $56.93 |
| 10-27 20:01 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3729999996 | $40.00 |
| 10-27 19:29 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.25 | $37.50 |
| 10-25 23:26 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%? | SELL | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 10-25 22:07 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4499100153 | $50.00 |
| 10-25 21:26 | Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? | BUY | 0.32 | $15.00 |
| 10-25 20:17 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.26 | $15.76 |
| 10-25 20:14 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3299999979 | $20.00 |
| 10-25 18:41 | Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5499999995 | $150.00 |
| 10-25 10:05 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.45 | $76.09 |