0x1c26c66a53a6bffa937414b12b38296e7b2351be
0x1c26c66a53a6bffa937414b12b38296e7b2351be
- Realised P&L
- $12.83
- Volume
- $360.29
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $8.40
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.540 | 0.962 | $1.78 | +$0.78 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.969 | $1.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.860 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.788 | 0.845 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.561 | 0.573 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · No | 0.680 | 0.675 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5? · No | 0.700 | 0.490 | $0.70 | −$0.30 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.069 | $0.22 | −$0.78 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.046 | $0.12 | −$0.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
- +$4.01at 0.339Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 09:47 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5609998149 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 00:14 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.78799971 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 15:48 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:14 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 8? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:14 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 15:14 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 05:59 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 21:58 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 13:58 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 05:58 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 6? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 05:57 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 05:57 | Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 21:57 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 13:57 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 04:25 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |