lorenzcurve
0x1c138c2c8ab06660f7cf02aa0368563a6806c371
- Realised P&L
- $35.86
- Volume
- $30.2k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.00at 0.950Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$33.36at 0.987Insurrection Act invoked by April 30?
- +$30.00at 0.940US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
- +$25.59at 0.973Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
- +$19.35at 0.972US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 20:40 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $1.1k |
| 04-27 20:33 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $997.00 |
| 04-27 20:33 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $998.00 |
| 04-18 05:22 | Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $75.73 |
| 04-18 05:22 | Insurrection Act invoked by April 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $22.90 |
| 04-18 05:21 | Insurrection Act invoked by April 30? | BUY | 0.994 | $99.40 |
| 04-18 05:21 | Insurrection Act invoked by April 30? | BUY | 0.9958494427 | $251.08 |
| 04-18 05:19 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | BUY | 0.9729965469 | $1.1k |
| 04-18 05:19 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $877.92 |
| 04-15 07:52 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY | 0.994 | $497.00 |
| 04-15 07:48 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.992 | $297.60 |
| 04-15 07:46 | Insurrection Act invoked by April 30? | BUY | 0.9895958447 | $1.8k |
| 04-08 07:01 | Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.9791209375 | $125.33 |
| 04-08 07:00 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL | 0.482 | $289.20 |
| 04-08 07:00 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | SELL | 0.3756759062 | $176.19 |