dfedd
0x1c021d6d2f106378e5764940fe6df4e20e51019e
- Realised P&L
- $-8.68
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 106
- Open portfolio
- $12.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded106
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $10.61 | +$0.01 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? · No | 0.750 | 0.745 | $1.89 | −$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 1? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.36 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,700 on December 15? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 15? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.60 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 28? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.18 |
| Spread: Chiefs (-10.5) · Dolphins | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.02 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 14? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.98at 0.510Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights
- +$1.35at 0.620Capitals vs. Hurricanes
- +$0.28at 0.997Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 15?
- +$0.27at 0.996Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31?
- +$0.21at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 13:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? | BUY | 0.9975294208 | $10.60 |
| 10-08 12:59 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7499998026 | $1.90 |
| 09-25 09:20 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.50 |
| 09-25 09:18 | Spread: Chiefs (-10.5) | BUY | 0.51 | $1.02 |
| 07-30 05:59 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999639 | $13.50 |
| 06-09 12:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $97.00 |
| 06-09 12:54 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.40 |
| 06-06 02:07 | Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 40m? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 05-25 12:08 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY | 0.9989999909 | $99.00 |
| 05-21 10:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 05-15 09:37 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $99.00 |
| 05-10 06:28 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $92.00 |
| 05-10 06:28 | Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 10? | BUY | 0.998999334 | $1.20 |
| 05-10 06:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? | BUY | 0.99799901 | $1.00 |
| 05-10 06:27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on May 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.60 |