0x1be6AeA8094056F1F5E5ECD9150f859a3e02336B-1761247849715
0x1be6aea8094056f1f5e5ecd9150f859a3e02336b
- Realised P&L
- $-3.1k
- Volume
- $165.9k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.387 | 0.542 | $1.0k | +$290.17 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.505 | 0.065 | $172.33 | −$1.2k |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.001 | $38.20 | −$1.1k |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.002 | $6.31 | −$93.69 |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.002 | $1.37 | −$98.63 |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.30 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? · Yes | 0.467 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$573.77 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes | 0.174 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$133.78at 0.552Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
- +$80.65at 0.310Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$-50.00at 0.002Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$-100.00at 0.270Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
- +$-100.00at 0.468U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-24 14:08 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3830859463 | $20.00 |
| 04-24 14:07 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3867738016 | $700.00 |
| 04-24 14:07 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1091865592 | $100.00 |
| 04-20 13:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY | 0.3893201691 | $456.03 |
| 04-14 13:08 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0237787473 | $100.00 |
| 04-08 15:02 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.004 | $100.00 |
| 03-25 18:13 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0194534169 | $1000.00 |
| 02-18 13:52 | US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.0569999985 | $34.30 |
| 02-18 13:51 | US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $20.00 |
| 02-15 20:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET | BUY | 0.3824571779 | $97.21 |
| 02-06 19:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5599999987 | $85.08 |
| 01-15 17:46 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.1738935487 | $100.00 |
| 01-14 17:48 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $180.64 |
| 01-14 17:47 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.5306186608 | $40.00 |
| 01-14 17:47 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.5288580186 | $100.00 |