er4ytay
0x1be4f61f0e73b369f52de1aadf1d073ec066296f
- Realised P&L
- $-2.57
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $1.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.957 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Boxing: Will Usyk win by KO/TKO/DQ? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.90at 0.810Will RFK Jr. win <1% of the popular vote?
- +$4.38at 0.840Will Indiana beat Northwestern?
- +$0.69at 0.706Will BYU make the College Football Playoff?
- +$0.45at 0.870Will Baby Reindeer win the Emmy for Outstanding Limited Series?
- +$0.15at 0.870Will a transgender women athlete compete at the 2026 Winter Games?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 11:11 | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.993 | $52.15 |
| 06-17 10:46 | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $52.00 |
| 06-17 10:46 | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.994 | $51.69 |
| 06-17 10:46 | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $52.00 |
| 05-07 04:59 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.994 | $196.79 |
| 05-04 12:25 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.995 | $197.00 |
| 04-03 06:03 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.993 | $176.87 |
| 04-03 06:03 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $94.43 |
| 04-01 08:37 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9969475289 | $95.00 |
| 04-01 08:36 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.994 | $176.00 |
| 04-01 08:35 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.993 | $174.77 |
| 04-01 08:35 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.994 | $176.00 |
| 02-17 11:04 | Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.998 | $141.86 |
| 02-16 09:19 | Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.999 | $142.00 |
| 01-29 07:56 | Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |