0x1be1c6480c0ae069abde2b31a5cbbe7212b82611
0x1be1c6480c0ae069abde2b31a5cbbe7212b82611
- Realised P&L
- $2.18
- Volume
- $118.58
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $1.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.875 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.46at 0.217Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?
- +$6.27at 0.247Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$1.93at 0.450Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.85at 0.472Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.31at 0.572Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 07:17 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 23:06 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 22:08 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 02:08 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.7099999843 | $1.36 |
| 08-07 07:37 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 23:37 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 15:36 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 07:36 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 11:35 | Will Trump say "Waitress" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 14:39 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999232 | $1.77 |
| 07-29 23:24 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 30? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |
| 07-29 12:38 | Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.44 | $1.54 |
| 07-28 20:09 | Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.49 | $1.47 |
| 07-28 09:47 | Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.5599998939 | $1.90 |
| 07-27 22:59 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999498 | $1.87 |