0x1bCFe389AA1dAC7F922E24516DFD09E7b789B52e-1783085996607
0x1bcfe389aa1dac7f922e24516dfd09e7b789b52e
- Realised P&L
- $154.20
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $69.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.765 | $47.81 | −$2.19 |
| Will Chile win on 2026-10-05? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.165 | $9.17 | −$0.83 |
| Will Nigeria win on 2026-10-06? · Yes | 0.219 | 0.165 | $7.54 | −$2.46 |
| Will Venezuela win on 2026-10-06? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.235 | $5.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-10-01? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Spain vs. Croatia end in a draw? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-09-29? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-20? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$115.24at 0.462Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?
- +$72.51at 0.750Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19?
- +$68.62at 0.303Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$60.92at 0.502Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?
- +$57.35at 0.472Will France win on 2026-09-28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 01:26 | Will Nigeria win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.2189054687 | $10.00 |
| 10-06 01:26 | Will Venezuela win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.229999994 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 01:25 | Will Chile win on 2026-10-05? | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $10.00 |
| 10-06 01:24 | Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.8 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 17:45 | Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.4899999984 | $60.00 |
| 10-01 17:44 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.4399999996 | $40.00 |
| 09-29 14:52 | Will Spain vs. Croatia end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 14:52 | Will Croatia win on 2026-09-29? | BUY | 0.069999999 | $2.00 |
| 09-28 19:11 | Will France win on 2026-09-28? | BUY | 0.4599999965 | $50.00 |
| 09-20 16:25 | Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.2299999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-20 16:21 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20? | SELL | 0.999 | $269.71 |
| 09-20 16:09 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-20? | SELL | 0.001078369 | $0.22 |
| 09-20 15:56 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.985222193 | $266.00 |
| 09-20 15:36 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.0599999999 | $10.00 |
| 09-20 15:07 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? | SELL | 0.999 | $277.03 |