Swordi
0x1bcbdf70b2fe05f26f817fb0f7d42005af4227c8
- Realised P&L
- $-35.79
- Volume
- $7.1k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $1.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the SD-AL House seat? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.950 | $1.07 | +$0.01 |
| Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.38 |
| Will Bernie say "King" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.04 |
| US-EU trade agreement by July 9? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.45at 0.580Piastri vs. Norris
- +$1.29at 0.700Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?
- +$0.51at 0.692Valorant: Nova Esports GC vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3)
- +$0.46at 0.995Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.39at 0.997Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 12:55 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.991 | $94.90 |
| 07-26 12:54 | Will FC Dallas win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SELL | 0.993 | $66.29 |
| 07-26 12:54 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.997 | $39.96 |
| 07-22 07:29 | Will FC Dallas win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.9944937121 | $66.00 |
| 07-22 07:29 | Will FC Dallas win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SELL | 0.993 | $65.54 |
| 07-22 07:29 | Will FC Dallas win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.994 | $66.00 |
| 07-22 07:29 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.998 | $40.00 |
| 07-22 07:28 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.992 | $95.00 |
| 07-06 12:32 | Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $150.98 |
| 06-22 05:38 | Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $150.00 |
| 06-22 05:38 | Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $148.80 |
| 06-22 05:37 | Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | BUY | 0.9954804255 | $150.00 |
| 06-22 05:37 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $130.00 |
| 06-22 05:36 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.995 | $130.00 |
| 06-22 05:36 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.994 | $129.22 |