arbs81
0x1bc616898fd147db105687a5bcf4a42d5d910744
- Realised P&L
- $-60.37
- Volume
- $8.4k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.95at 0.831Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
- +$25.18at 0.682Will Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
- +$15.51at 0.710Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?
- +$10.86at 0.110Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-04 House election by 5%-10%?
- +$10.16at 0.306Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:30 | Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.62 | $0.28 |
| 11-01 16:28 | Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.76 | $236.36 |
| 11-01 14:58 | Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.7099999996 | $221.13 |
| 11-01 14:56 | Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.7526842105 | $143.01 |
| 11-01 00:52 | Will The Black Ball win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.8205538231 | $204.34 |
| 10-31 22:54 | Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.94 | $0.82 |
| 10-31 22:53 | Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.9404366667 | $25.39 |
| 10-31 22:51 | Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | SELL | 0.66 | $141.24 |
| 10-31 18:01 | Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.2048917749 | $47.33 |
| 10-31 16:33 | Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.93135 | $18.63 |
| 10-31 15:41 | Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.932071 | $139.81 |
| 10-30 15:53 | Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.92 | $38.73 |
| 10-30 02:26 | Will the Republicans win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2889958735 | $63.03 |
| 10-30 00:31 | Will the Republicans win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2997882087 | $44.70 |
| 10-30 00:29 | Will Juventus finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Serie A season? | BUY | 0.2942122149 | $15.25 |