PolyBot

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Traders

arbs81

0x1bc616898fd147db105687a5bcf4a42d5d910744

Realised P&L
$-60.37
Volume
$8.4k
Markets traded
38
Open portfolio
$1.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded38
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample16 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)43.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Marco Sturm win the 2026-27 Jack Adams Award? · No0.7900.720$319.92−$31.20
Will The Black Ball win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.8210.887$221.01+$16.67
Will Myles Garrett win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? · No0.7850.960$203.08+$36.97
Will Harry Kane score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? · No0.7600.795$165.99+$7.31
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No0.6840.675$144.55−$1.91
Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? · Yes0.5400.560$123.75+$4.42
Will Olivia Colman be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.5320.510$91.80−$4.06
Will Manchester City finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season? · Yes0.4890.519$66.43+$3.84
Will Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 Ted Lindsay Award? · No0.6000.570$64.71−$3.47
Will "Madden" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.6000.615$56.57+$1.38
Will Patrick Mahomes have 30+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · Yes0.2260.495$54.60+$29.63
Will the Republicans win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election? · Yes0.2840.180$47.79−$27.57
Will Juventus finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Serie A season? · Yes0.2930.340$44.47+$6.11
Will the Republicans win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election? · Yes0.3000.250$37.28−$7.42
Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes0.2050.155$35.80−$11.52

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 16:30Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?SELL0.62$0.28
11-01 16:28Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?SELL0.76$236.36
11-01 14:58Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?BUY0.7099999996$221.13
11-01 14:56Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.7526842105$143.01
11-01 00:52Will The Black Ball win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.8205538231$204.34
10-31 22:54Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.94$0.82
10-31 22:53Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.9404366667$25.39
10-31 22:51Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?SELL0.66$141.24
10-31 18:01Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.2048917749$47.33
10-31 16:33Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.93135$18.63
10-31 15:41Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.932071$139.81
10-30 15:53Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.92$38.73
10-30 02:26Will the Republicans win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?BUY0.2889958735$63.03
10-30 00:31Will the Republicans win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?BUY0.2997882087$44.70
10-30 00:29Will Juventus finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Serie A season?BUY0.2942122149$15.25