212121212121212121212
0x1bc0d88ca86b9049cf05d642e634836d5ddf4429
- Realised P&L
- $807.7k
- Volume
- $47.36M
- Markets traded
- 573
- Open portfolio
- $19.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded573
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.972 | $19.4k | +$2.6k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.018 | $175.00 | −$1.2k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.020 | $80.00 | −$720.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.007 | $75.00 | −$925.00 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.039 | $28.91 | −$163.83 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.029 | $28.77 | −$166.29 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.003 | $15.29 | −$217.08 |
| Kings vs. Celtics · Kings | 0.193 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.9k |
| Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5 · Over | 0.521 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.6k |
| Hornets vs. Nets · Nets | 0.071 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.1k |
| Pelicans vs. Rockets · Pelicans | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.6k |
| Spurs vs. Warriors · Warriors | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.0k |
| Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 · Under | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.4k |
| Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.0k |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$375.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$251.4kat 0.425Cavaliers vs. Suns
- +$245.8kat 0.103Hornets vs. Thunder
- +$215.6kat 0.202Knicks vs. Kings
- +$206.2kat 0.326Thunder vs. Spurs
- +$201.6kat 0.160Rockets vs. Kings
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 01:00 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.585 | $161.77 |
| 07-11 22:21 | Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.62 | $223.36 |
| 07-11 22:16 | Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.4446985625 | $4.4k |
| 07-11 22:14 | Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.565 | $68.90 |
| 05-29 08:31 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 | BUY | 0.46 | $5.3k |
| 05-29 08:31 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 | BUY | 0.48 | $4.7k |
| 05-25 12:29 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $947.87 |
| 05-25 01:32 | Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | BUY | 0.4 | $875.39 |
| 05-24 14:54 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY | 0.975 | $126.75 |
| 05-24 14:06 | Will Pacôme Dadiet win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? | BUY | 0.998 | $172.63 |
| 05-24 14:04 | Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? | BUY | 0.995 | $28.87 |
| 05-24 14:03 | Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? | BUY | 0.998 | $44.58 |
| 05-24 14:01 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.155 | $30.79 |
| 05-24 11:57 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.155 | $8.50 |
| 05-12 13:04 | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.0083873087 | $35.25 |