0x1ba4717b7c0cffb45d53fb41e3d6bcfe1aca8d50
0x1ba4717b7c0cffb45d53fb41e3d6bcfe1aca8d50
- Realised P&L
- $-1.06
- Volume
- $104.07
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $4.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.935 | $1.23 | +$0.23 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on November 2? · No | 0.790 | 0.920 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.815 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.770 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.90at 0.220Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 21?
- +$3.48at 0.240Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 26, 2026?
- +$2.54at 0.288Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$1.75at 0.369Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $183 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$1.58at 0.410US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 00:06 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on November 2? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 15:30 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 05:19 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 01:53 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 16:42 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 08:32 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3149999181 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 23:58 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 01:55 | Will Meta (META) close above $750 on October 14? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:03 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 12:48 | Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 net interest income be above $1.075B? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:48 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:44 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 06:25 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 22:25 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 22:22 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |