0x1ba4717b7c0cffb45d53fb41e3d6bcfe1aca8d50
- Realised P&L
- $-4.29
- Volume
- $28.22
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $1.78
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-15.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.680 | 1.000 | $1.62 | +$0.52 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $191 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.095 | $0.16 | −$0.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.58at 0.410US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
- +$0.70at 0.610US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
- +$0.44at 0.718Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?
- +$-1.10at 0.240US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?
- +$-1.11at 0.728SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 06:01 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999476 | $1.10 |
| 09-13 22:00 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $191 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6499998818 | $1.10 |
| 09-10 07:26 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.7199998953 | $1.10 |
| 09-09 17:17 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.4099999739 | $1.10 |
| 09-09 17:05 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.2999999727 | $1.10 |
| 09-09 17:04 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.2799999593 | $1.10 |
| 09-09 16:54 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7099998967 | $1.10 |
| 09-09 16:49 | Will John Ternus say "Hardware" during his Apple Keynote? | BUY | 0.5199999055 | $1.10 |
| 09-09 08:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.6099998946 | $1.10 |
| 09-08 10:30 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6799996044 | $1.10 |
| 09-08 00:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.2399999651 | $1.10 |