WaterF
0x1b8ee44502064117ba3413d3a0f9dd2c3e3eaf25
- Realised P&L
- $134.88
- Volume
- $286.3k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $335.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.003 | $261.73 | +$52.76 |
| Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $47.62 | −$24.51 |
| Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.002 | $15.00 | +$5.00 |
| Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.002 | $5.37 | −$42.62 |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.002 | $3.51 | −$8.48 |
| Will Andy Warhol be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.012 | $2.39 | +$1.39 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.097 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.50 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET · Down | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.00at 0.001Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$16.14at 0.498Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$10.25at 0.460Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
- +$4.66at 0.051Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
- +$-0.32at 0.090Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 17:41 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 21:07 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.002 | $30.00 |
| 10-23 21:14 | Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.003 | $30.00 |
| 09-29 23:32 | Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.00 |
| 09-29 23:28 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.002 | $30.00 |
| 09-26 19:29 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | SELL | 0.0593794155 | $34.66 |
| 09-09 10:27 | Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0147840239 | $8.00 |
| 09-09 07:24 | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 06:58 | Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0133014795 | $20.00 |
| 09-09 06:58 | Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0058322155 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 06:58 | Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.013 | $20.00 |
| 09-09 06:57 | Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 06:57 | Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.005 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 06:44 | Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.00 |
| 09-07 15:34 | Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0020200928 | $31.00 |