0x1b83b9bc4b0d9817310a223a49bb39e48e685c94
0x1b83b9bc4b0d9817310a223a49bb39e48e685c94
- Realised P&L
- $-13.11
- Volume
- $222.82
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $3.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.285 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · No | 0.750 | 0.615 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in September? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.495 | $0.67 | −$0.33 |
| Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.115 | $0.37 | −$0.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.51at 0.440SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 14?
- +$4.32at 0.542Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July?
- +$3.37at 0.602Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?
- +$2.72at 0.651Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?
- +$2.49at 0.671Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 07:00 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 21:42 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in September? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 13:42 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 25? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 04:20 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:01 | Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 22:10 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998909 | $2.61 |
| 09-02 07:55 | Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 10:39 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 08-29 00:29 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.29999997 | $5.00 |
| 08-15 08:40 | Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 08-14 23:29 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.46 |
| 08-14 02:10 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 14? | BUY | 0.4299999871 | $5.00 |
| 08-13 18:09 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 08-05 08:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 08-05 00:45 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |