MARV-1
0x1b75f92c7093c0fc63b247a31acc1ba35d3d490c
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $90.8k
- Markets traded
- 578
- Open portfolio
- $422.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded578
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$88.94at 0.326Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
- +$70.74at 0.340Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
- +$66.09at 0.924Will Drake release a new album by September 30?
- +$60.71at 0.843Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24?
- +$55.81at 0.317Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 06:28 | Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23? | BUY | 0.6930693062 | $100.00 |
| 10-18 00:42 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 19? | BUY | 0.975 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 14:56 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 14:54 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 14:53 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.9649999952 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 14:52 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.9549999952 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 14:51 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.937999955 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:41 | Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | SELL | 0.28 | $5.04 |
| 10-15 13:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:37 | Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | BUY | 0.5599999642 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 16:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | SELL | 0.02 | $1.43 |
| 10-13 16:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | BUY | 0.1399999989 | $10.00 |
| 10-13 15:26 | Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? | BUY | 0.2409999764 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 13:32 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $7.00 |
| 10-13 10:40 | Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |