stas
0x1b6a3b8bba6a93c0af2be27d5d2d9ba2272dbcd6
- Realised P&L
- $2.08
- Volume
- $10.1k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $2.3k | −$1.14 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.989 | 1.000 | $11.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.990 | 1.000 | $11.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.993 | 1.000 | $11.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $11.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.894 | $2.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in October? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.660 | $1.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.140 | $1.00 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.89at 0.720Ethereum above $3,100 on July 19?
- +$2.95at 0.877Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?
- +$2.82at 0.780Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December?
- +$2.65at 0.430Georgescu banned from Romania election?
- +$1.76at 0.740Will Manchester United vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 18:58 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 10-15 18:58 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in October? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 10-15 18:57 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.4k |
| 10-15 18:57 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1399999832 | $1.00 |
| 05-26 10:47 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $11.00 |
| 05-26 10:47 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9890126963 | $11.00 |
| 05-26 10:46 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999996 | $11.00 |
| 05-26 10:46 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.989999919 | $11.00 |
| 03-06 09:09 | US forces enter Iran by March 7? | BUY | 0.9709999995 | $30.00 |
| 03-06 09:06 | Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.997930014 | $980.31 |
| 03-06 09:05 | Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.999 | $981.36 |
| 10-04 09:47 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | BUY | 0.991 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 09:47 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | BUY | 0.9769999834 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 09:47 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | BUY | 0.962 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 09:47 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | BUY | 0.8839995757 | $1.00 |