always-settle
0x1b53c759e311975655a557d1561be3692d489f50
- Realised P&L
- $-39.97
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $79.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.255 | $38.25 | −$9.75 |
| Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31? · Yes | 0.351 | 0.415 | $26.58 | +$4.07 |
| Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31? · No | 0.590 | 0.585 | $14.63 | −$0.13 |
| Will PPI YoY be 6.2% in October? · Yes | 0.125 | 0.026 | $0.27 | −$1.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.07at 0.700Will "Sense and Sensibility" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?
- +$10.94at 0.430US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
- +$-0.61at 0.730Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
- +$-1.50at 0.690Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
- +$-1.50at 0.480Government shutdown by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 13:36 | US imports Russian diesel by November 30? | SELL | 0.46 | $92.00 |
| 10-31 13:36 | US imports Russian diesel by November 30? | SELL | 0.53 | $31.55 |
| 10-30 17:18 | Government shutdown by December 31? | SELL | 0.45 | $22.50 |
| 10-29 10:47 | Will "Sense and Sensibility" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.93 | $48.83 |
| 10-29 10:47 | Will "Sense and Sensibility" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.06 | $11.70 |
| 10-28 22:58 | Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.7371510297 | $12.89 |
| 10-28 22:53 | Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.744 | $46.50 |
| 10-28 22:03 | Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.6202548726 | $4.14 |
| 10-28 21:58 | Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.66 | $8.80 |