Guesswho202
0x1b1040c29459d963c9fd8b17fb5bbc301c70ce9e
- Realised P&L
- $-3.47
- Volume
- $536.84
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $5.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.00at 0.200Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$1.92at 0.347Knicks vs. Spurs
- +$1.17at 0.460Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22?
- +$0.42at 0.038Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?
- +$-0.05at 0.042Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 12:55 | Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.05 |
| 06-20 12:55 | Will the Democrats win the Wyoming governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.049 | $1.05 |
| 06-20 12:55 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.357 | $1.32 |
| 06-20 12:51 | Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.0414512864 | $0.98 |
| 06-20 12:51 | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.043692 | $0.87 |
| 06-20 12:50 | Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.077 | $0.91 |
| 06-15 15:02 | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 06-15 15:02 | Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.0405820329 | $0.96 |
| 06-15 15:01 | Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.031 | $1.05 |
| 06-06 20:44 | Will an independent win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.047 | $1.05 |
| 06-06 20:44 | Will the Democrats win the Idaho governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.041 | $1.05 |
| 06-06 20:44 | Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.037 | $1.05 |
| 06-06 20:44 | Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.037 | $0.44 |
| 06-06 20:44 | Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.035 | $0.98 |
| 06-06 20:44 | Will an independent win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.029 | $0.21 |