lumie
0x1b07073f60b6fbd6b56b5bc578b44c4dc941055f
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $238.0k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $29.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? · No | 0.850 | 0.960 | $19.20 | +$2.20 |
| Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.122 | $10.37 | −$6.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 12AM ET
- +$1.3kat 0.590Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?
- +$63.94at 0.390Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07?
- +$50.00at 0.650Will Trump and Putin not meet?
- +$33.00at 0.620Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 06:22 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.774 | $3.5k |
| 09-15 09:00 | Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.7k |
| 09-15 08:56 | Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $850.00 |
| 09-15 08:50 | Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $2.5k |
| 09-15 08:04 | Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $595.00 |
| 09-11 06:50 | Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? | SELL | 0.702 | $1.5k |
| 09-11 06:42 | Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? | SELL | 0.702 | $561.60 |
| 09-11 03:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.63 | $2.1k |
| 09-11 02:26 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.62 | $2.0k |
| 09-11 02:21 | Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.716 | $2.1k |
| 09-10 03:24 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.65 | $3.2k |
| 09-10 02:58 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $4.1k |
| 09-07 03:30 | Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | SELL | 0.226 | $4.22 |
| 09-07 02:04 | Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | SELL | 0.226 | $2.26 |
| 09-04 03:41 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $2.8k |