0x1afcbb06720dac6ca22736e22d3f4774e6382abd
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $39.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 10%-15%? · No | 0.740 | 0.705 | $23.27 | −$1.16 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.685 | $15.76 | −$2.41 |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.58 |
| LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group · DN SOOPers | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.48 |
| Spread: Argentina (-2.5) · Argentina | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.40 |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.61 |
| Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-05? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.98 |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage · Legacy | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.43 |
| Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$88.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$721.98at 0.500Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$485.33at 0.500Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$403.32at 0.500Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
- +$187.48at 0.419France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
- +$84.49at 0.500Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 09:42 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 10%-15%? | BUY | 0.74 | $3.77 |
| 10-20 09:17 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage | BUY | 0.71 | $23.43 |
| 09-08 06:36 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.79 | $18.17 |
| 09-05 02:34 | Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $51.95 |
| 09-05 02:33 | Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-05? | BUY | 0.34 | $15.98 |
| 09-05 02:32 | Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.999 | $52.00 |
| 08-19 02:52 | Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Group C | BUY | 0.72 | $18.72 |
| 08-05 09:45 | LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group | BUY | 0.34 | $7.48 |
| 07-17 07:50 | Spread: Spain (-1.5) | BUY | 0.8 | $27.20 |
| 07-16 09:34 | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $934.06 |
| 07-16 09:34 | Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.996 | $44.74 |
| 07-16 09:33 | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $935.00 |
| 07-16 09:33 | Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.996 | $926.28 |
| 07-16 09:33 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.006 | $5.91 |
| 07-16 09:32 | Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.997 | $352.00 |