0x1aE36EdB6D216f72a1F035F2372E47902c79a369-1772149654988
0x1ae36edb6d216f72a1f035f2372e47902c79a369
- Realised P&L
- $-13.28
- Volume
- $302.82
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $6.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.105 | $3.75 | −$1.25 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.945 | $2.17 | +$0.17 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.629 | 0.145 | $0.92 | −$3.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.27at 0.095Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$1.57at 0.560Stars vs. Flames
- +$0.85at 0.540Avalanche vs. Utah
- +$0.60at 0.812Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.49at 0.670Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 18:08 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.182 | $9.58 |
| 06-23 17:13 | Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 03-23 12:24 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.949 | $2.02 |
| 03-23 12:21 | Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | SELL | 0.93 | $2.02 |
| 03-23 12:21 | Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | SELL | 0.961 | $1.09 |
| 03-18 18:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 03-18 18:38 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.2699999656 | $4.00 |
| 03-18 18:38 | Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.973 | $3.59 |
| 03-18 11:19 | Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.0689999387 | $1.00 |
| 03-17 01:35 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL | 0.38 | $0.54 |
| 03-16 01:01 | Maple Leafs vs. Wild | SELL | 0.12 | $0.17 |
| 03-15 22:33 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL | 0.43 | $1.84 |
| 03-15 22:32 | Maple Leafs vs. Wild | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 03-14 11:01 | Rangers vs. Wild | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 03-14 11:01 | Avalanche vs. Jets | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |