Sonmerfield
0x1adc76a91839dce9bf852bcee73a5df5429a0366
- Realised P&L
- $-0.16
- Volume
- $820.92
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $4.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.89at 0.500Will "Match Point" be said at the Rotterdam Grand Final?
- +$1.16at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February 26?
- +$0.74at 0.500Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by October 31?
- +$0.72at 0.500Will B8 win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?
- +$0.70at 0.500Will José Antonio Kast win between 16% and 20% of votes in the first round?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 14:37 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $520 on October 14? | SELL | 0.995 | $4.94 |
| 10-14 14:37 | Will "Clayface" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 14:36 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $520 on October 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 10-14 14:35 | Will "Cleveland! - Taylor Swift" be the #2 US song this week? | SELL | 0.995 | $4.22 |
| 10-14 14:32 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on October 14? | SELL | 0.991 | $3.96 |
| 10-14 14:31 | Will "Cleveland! - Taylor Swift" be the #2 US song this week? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.30 |
| 10-14 14:30 | Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.8899999322 | $1.05 |
| 10-14 14:28 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9099999279 | $1.01 |
| 10-14 14:27 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on October 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 17:38 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on September 2? | SELL | 0.998 | $9.90 |
| 09-01 17:38 | Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series? | BUY | 0.9239995443 | $1.03 |
| 09-01 17:36 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on September 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 07-28 17:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28? | SELL | 0.992 | $2.41 |
| 07-28 17:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28? | BUY | 0.993999929 | $3.50 |
| 07-28 17:01 | Dota 2: PuckChamp vs KW (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B | BUY | 0.98 | $1.04 |