esf4t
0x1acb97df2b72e03d490f969abfd3a1aa5105c739
- Realised P&L
- $27.20
- Volume
- $9.4k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $0.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration35.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 7? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.63 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 10? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.45 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 8? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.71at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 8?
- +$12.56at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 7?
- +$12.23at 0.994Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 15?
- +$12.20at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 10?
- +$3.86at 0.765Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 15:04 | Chiefs vs. Dolphins: O/U 28.5 | BUY | 0.96 | $7.57 |
| 08-15 02:28 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 15? | BUY | 0.994 | $2.0k |
| 08-15 02:27 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 15? | BUY | 0.994 | $596.40 |
| 07-04 11:59 | Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) | BUY | 0.992 | $5.56 |
| 06-23 13:42 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $324 Week of June 22 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $10.48 |
| 06-18 07:23 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? | BUY | 0.991 | $22.50 |
| 06-11 00:38 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 | BUY | 0.972 | $5.56 |
| 06-02 11:55 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on June 3? | BUY | 0.992 | $13.22 |
| 05-25 00:35 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 26? | BUY | 0.97 | $11.13 |
| 05-15 01:42 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 Week of May 11 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $7.86 |
| 05-06 10:48 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 7? | BUY | 0.981 | $18.97 |
| 04-21 13:15 | Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.76 | $12.43 |
| 04-11 07:41 | Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.0k |