Gus9753
0x1ab42953807697f42a3c76b28725207e10a14e48
- Realised P&L
- $-10.27
- Volume
- $106.2k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $4.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.970 | 0.835 | $4.38 | −$0.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.27at 0.950Megaquake in January?
- +$0.24at 0.931Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
- +$0.19at 0.950Ukraine agrees to resume Russian natural gas transit in January?
- +$0.13at 0.930Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?
- +$0.13at 0.960Will Dell say "AI Factory" during earnings call?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 09:26 | Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $5.09 |
| 09-02 09:26 | Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? | SELL | 0.897 | $4.83 |
| 08-08 12:31 | Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? | BUY | 0.9559999941 | $5.15 |
| 07-23 09:31 | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31? | BUY | 0.9899998953 | $5.39 |
| 06-07 11:16 | Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? | BUY | 0.9909999988 | $4.92 |
| 06-07 11:15 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $1.71 |
| 05-17 08:13 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.72 |
| 05-17 08:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL | 0.998 | $4.05 |
| 05-09 12:01 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY | 0.9849999212 | $4.00 |
| 05-09 12:01 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.45 |
| 04-06 06:46 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.9929999989 | $5.43 |
| 04-06 06:45 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.968 | $5.43 |
| 03-17 15:45 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9659999957 | $5.42 |
| 03-17 15:44 | Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31? | SELL | 0.992 | $5.42 |
| 02-24 15:35 | Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31? | BUY | 0.9839999985 | $5.38 |