0x1ab00789cb86835e726da556c8fc2c04ffc3f8c9
0x1ab00789cb86835e726da556c8fc2c04ffc3f8c9
- Realised P&L
- $500.21
- Volume
- $37.3k
- Markets traded
- 160
- Open portfolio
- $13.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded160
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Misti Cordell be the Republican nominee for LA-05? · Yes | 0.121 | 0.176 | $7.06 | +$2.22 |
| Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? · Yes | 0.282 | 0.032 | $6.48 | −$51.61 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? · No | 0.117 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.134 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$655.87at 0.016Will David Crowley win Waukesha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
- +$515.50at 0.176Will Brandon Dukes win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?
- +$479.12at 0.114Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
- +$344.83at 0.157Will Everton Blair win the 2026 GA-13 special election?
- +$144.27at 0.182Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 16:19 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $50.00 |
| 09-19 16:44 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.0587313442 | $20.00 |
| 09-19 16:26 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.1099999996 | $25.00 |
| 09-19 16:24 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2699999988 | $50.00 |
| 09-15 05:48 | Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.032 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 07:45 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.1499999997 | $25.00 |
| 09-10 07:14 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2599999991 | $50.00 |
| 09-10 07:14 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.1499999997 | $25.00 |
| 09-10 07:13 | Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.1174191276 | $25.00 |
| 09-10 06:41 | Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware? | BUY | 0.0898124708 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 02:13 | Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.0289999999 | $4.00 |
| 09-10 02:13 | Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.0291071429 | $1.63 |
| 09-09 15:40 | Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? | BUY | 0.1769041762 | $40.00 |
| 09-08 13:36 | Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? | BUY | 0.1699999993 | $30.00 |
| 09-08 13:35 | Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? | BUY | 0.16 | $50.00 |