fedecomg
0x1a9524f3f0bea90e94c562f268f5a3079d4ffc04
- Realised P&L
- $-3.26
- Volume
- $6.7k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $19.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition · Yes | 0.890 | 1.000 | $11.24 | +$1.24 |
| Will Justin Gavri win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $3.59 | +$0.00 |
| Will Eric Adams finish his term as NYC mayor? · Yes | 0.960 | 1.000 | $2.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.20 | +$0.00 |
| Will Xerox announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.940 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.86at 0.700Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?
- +$0.74at 0.730Trump cabinet member out before July?
- +$0.28at 0.879Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?
- +$0.17at 0.900Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce before July?
- +$0.14at 0.880Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-25 05:52 | Will Justin Gavri win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | SELL | 0.998 | $282.43 |
| 11-22 10:17 | Will Xerox announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 11-22 10:16 | Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $10.00 |
| 11-22 10:15 | Will Justin Gavri win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | BUY | 0.999 | $286.30 |
| 11-22 10:15 | Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | SELL | 0.998 | $300.80 |
| 11-22 10:14 | Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | BUY | 0.999 | $302.30 |
| 11-22 10:13 | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 06-12 07:47 | Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 5% and 10%? | BUY | 0.699999755 | $2.00 |
| 06-12 07:46 | Andrew Cuomo charged before September? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 06-12 07:46 | Will Eric Adams finish his term as NYC mayor? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.00 |
| 06-12 07:46 | Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.8789998378 | $2.00 |
| 06-12 07:45 | Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce before July? | SELL | 0.977 | $2.17 |
| 03-09 02:00 | Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 03-09 01:59 | Trump cabinet member out before July? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 03-09 01:59 | Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce before July? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.00 |