be4to8mn
0x1a797c9c80e222ab5a69f6282ef2b5ba7c003dd9
- Realised P&L
- $-123.85
- Volume
- $62.4k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $40.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.979 | 0.992 | $18.23 | +$0.23 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 20? · No | 0.986 | 0.994 | $10.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 October 19-25? · No | 0.993 | 0.991 | $9.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.887 | $2.31 | −$0.19 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7? · No | 0.959 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Hurricanes vs. Rangers · Rangers | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.81at 0.840Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
- +$1.34at 0.981Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League?
- +$0.59at 0.962Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?
- +$0.34at 0.959Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18?
- +$0.32at 0.940Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 08:04 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.9859999992 | $10.00 |
| 10-19 08:03 | Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 October 19-25? | BUY | 0.9929999996 | $10.00 |
| 10-07 07:45 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599998771 | $2.50 |
| 10-07 07:44 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.9959999397 | $8.00 |
| 10-07 07:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.992 | $22.00 |
| 09-15 04:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September? | BUY | 0.987999755 | $3.50 |
| 09-15 04:50 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.9699999971 | $3.30 |
| 08-22 03:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August? | BUY | 0.9949998526 | $5.50 |
| 08-22 03:48 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 23? | BUY | 0.995 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 04:15 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in August? | BUY | 0.995 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 04:14 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.99 | $6.00 |
| 07-31 08:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? | BUY | 0.9949999801 | $3.50 |
| 07-31 08:17 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 07-25 09:34 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 26? | BUY | 0.997 | $17.00 |
| 07-06 03:43 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July? | BUY | 0.996 | $10.00 |