j-a-ck08
0x1a620d7f034949ee920ef3031840cad16a6df738
- Realised P&L
- $-20.95
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $14.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.620 | $12.08 | −$2.92 |
| Will Marvel's Wolverine win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.023 | $2.84 | −$2.16 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET · Up | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down on April 24? · Up | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.373 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.74 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.05at 0.630Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$2.57at 0.280Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
- +$2.02at 0.690US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$1.76at 0.671Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$1.54at 0.620Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 09:39 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? | BUY | 0.7699999954 | $15.00 |
| 09-09 09:38 | Will Marvel's Wolverine win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? | BUY | 0.0405159853 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 09:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 09-02 09:10 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.175 | $1.99 |
| 08-26 10:35 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $1.84 |
| 06-18 10:13 | Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? | SELL | 0.777 | $0.70 |
| 06-01 07:43 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 05-29 08:55 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 08:29 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.056 | $5.89 |
| 05-08 13:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | SELL | 0.61 | $1.45 |
| 05-08 13:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 05-08 13:51 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.95 | $9.04 |
| 05-08 13:50 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0949999922 | $10.00 |
| 05-08 11:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET | SELL | 0.93 | $1.03 |
| 05-08 11:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |