0x1a2d6c8920edcd7984e4292def3434d639b8f2f0
0x1a2d6c8920edcd7984e4292def3434d639b8f2f0
- Realised P&L
- $-3.27
- Volume
- $226.04
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $6.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.277 | 0.515 | $1.86 | +$0.86 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.994 | $1.32 | +$0.32 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.225 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? · No | 0.600 | 0.560 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.670 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.605 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.51at 0.229Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?
- +$3.15at 0.270Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?
- +$2.21at 0.480Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during remarks in New York?
- +$2.15at 0.488Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 20:18 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 12:17 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 04:15 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2769999465 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 20:15 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 12:15 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 8? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:13 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 20:02 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 08:02 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 00:02 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 12:18 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 15:52 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 14:38 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 21:32 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 19:31 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.6909998946 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 09:06 | Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |