0x1a2d6c8920edcd7984e4292def3434d639b8f2f0
- Realised P&L
- $6.78
- Volume
- $96.34
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $10.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 1.000 | $4.31 | +$3.19 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.560 | 0.870 | $2.66 | +$0.95 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.915 | $1.85 | +$0.27 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.465 | $1.43 | −$0.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.70at 0.230Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.83at 0.390Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.44at 0.520Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 06:06 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 22:05 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 14:01 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 04:17 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 20:17 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 12:16 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599998468 | $1.12 |
| 08-01 03:09 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.619999895 | $1.89 |
| 07-31 19:07 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 11:06 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 05:10 | Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.30 |
| 07-29 13:42 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-27 23:13 | Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6099999377 | $1.86 |
| 07-27 15:00 | Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.45 | $1.53 |
| 07-27 02:16 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.17 |
| 07-26 14:16 | Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.42 |