0x1a290b339f9d79622659cec4d2befe01fd28ec55
- Realised P&L
- $-6.46
- Volume
- $87.78
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $12.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 1.000 | $2.60 | +$0.60 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 1.000 | $2.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.795 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.730 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? · No | 0.580 | 0.645 | $1.97 | +$0.20 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.230 | 0.105 | $0.91 | −$1.09 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.400 | 0.155 | $0.78 | −$1.23 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.37at 0.594Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.71at 0.740Will Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$0.62at 0.753Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$0.53at 0.790Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 16:31 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:30 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:30 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:29 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:28 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 13:45 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 01:43 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 17:38 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | BUY | 0.5799998886 | $1.77 |
| 07-31 09:37 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.26 |
| 07-29 11:10 | Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.05 |
| 07-28 21:26 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-28 06:55 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-27 19:33 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-27 01:49 | Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5939999474 | $2.01 |