relaxingbar
0x19b18660d1c118bca4db20eec5e01e05e11345d6
- Realised P&L
- $-446.13
- Volume
- $156.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $626.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.750 | $450.00 | −$18.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.966 | $96.55 | +$4.55 |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.962 | 0.983 | $53.05 | +$1.11 |
| Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.005 | $27.00 | −$17.18 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.49at 0.340US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$10.87at 0.140US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
- +$10.00at 0.957Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$9.24at 0.990Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$5.49at 0.974SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 16:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.01 | $25.29 |
| 07-25 16:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.0133386929 | $51.43 |
| 07-25 13:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.0297378839 | $57.75 |
| 07-25 11:49 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.0278715441 | $47.73 |
| 07-25 10:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.02 | $76.52 |
| 07-25 09:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.0240357444 | $131.04 |
| 07-25 09:39 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 25? | SELL | 0.06 | $13.54 |
| 07-25 08:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.035 | $25.95 |
| 07-25 06:51 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 25? | SELL | 0.07 | $8.89 |
| 07-25 04:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 04:32 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 25? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.00 |
| 07-25 02:28 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 25? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.40 |
| 07-25 01:38 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.13 | $34.16 |
| 07-25 01:22 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 25? | BUY | 0.1 | $12.00 |
| 07-25 01:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.13 | $52.00 |