relaxingbar
0x19b18660d1c118bca4db20eec5e01e05e11345d6
- Realised P&L
- $-477.78
- Volume
- $162.0k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.995 | 0.995 | $2.0k | −$1.00 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.955 | $560.59 | +$2.94 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.720 | $432.00 | −$36.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.983 | $98.30 | +$6.30 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.545 | $71.94 | −$12.54 |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.962 | 0.986 | $53.22 | +$1.27 |
| Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.004 | $22.09 | −$22.09 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.40 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$975.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$957.94at 0.361Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$23.48at 0.340US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$10.87at 0.140US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
- +$10.00at 0.957Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$9.24at 0.990Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 09:32 | Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.995 | $2.0k |
| 09-17 09:31 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $557.65 |
| 08-26 13:49 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.35 | $525.00 |
| 08-26 13:49 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.65 | $975.00 |
| 08-26 13:48 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.64 | $84.48 |
| 07-25 16:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.01 | $25.29 |
| 07-25 16:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.0133386929 | $51.43 |
| 07-25 13:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.0297378839 | $57.75 |
| 07-25 11:49 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.0278715441 | $47.73 |
| 07-25 10:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.02 | $76.52 |
| 07-25 09:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.0240357444 | $131.04 |
| 07-25 09:39 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 25? | SELL | 0.06 | $13.54 |
| 07-25 08:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.035 | $25.95 |
| 07-25 06:51 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 25? | SELL | 0.07 | $8.89 |
| 07-25 04:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |