Plushao12
0x19adbc23e2ec2b655a6b387d53445fc2c3c42dbb
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $232.5k
- Markets traded
- 840
- Open portfolio
- $421.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded840
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$344.23at 0.403Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
- +$297.86at 0.606Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
- +$297.83at 0.700Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
- +$278.47at 0.001Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?
- +$258.11at 0.037US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-22 04:42 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.08 | $0.91 |
| 04-22 03:24 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.3079999618 | $4.65 |
| 04-22 03:23 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.599999985 | $7.68 |
| 04-22 03:23 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.035999983 | $1.81 |
| 04-22 03:20 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.7399998964 | $4.87 |
| 04-21 17:47 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.2990000005 | $4.65 |
| 04-21 17:47 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999806 | $9.27 |
| 04-21 17:46 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.0856767926 | $4.54 |
| 04-21 17:46 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.149999976 | $4.58 |
| 04-21 17:43 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $4.64 |
| 04-21 17:43 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.5049504844 | $14.26 |
| 04-21 17:41 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.70 |
| 04-21 17:41 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.4172164641 | $9.42 |
| 04-21 17:39 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.2458839035 | $4.62 |
| 04-21 17:39 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 22? | BUY | 0.3099999622 | $4.66 |