0x199b1c46026106432bc8F11C4BDB8dB5B617cd69-1786180773773
0x199b1c46026106432bc8f11c4bdb8db5b617cd69
- Realised P&L
- $-238.49
- Volume
- $20.3k
- Markets traded
- 169
- Open portfolio
- $255.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded169
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 13? · Yes | 0.990 | 1.000 | $177.91 | +$1.69 |
| Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 14? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.545 | $77.13 | −$62.98 |
| Will it rain in Chicago, IL on October 2? · No | 0.073 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.83at 0.818Will it rain in Houston, TX on September 4?
- +$40.38at 0.100Will the lowest temperature in Manila be 26°C on September 18?
- +$28.60at 0.896Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 21?
- +$28.59at 0.875Will it rain in New York, NY on September 10?
- +$20.23at 0.974Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 16:57 | Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 14? | BUY | 0.99 | $140.10 |
| 10-13 07:57 | Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 13? | BUY | 0.99 | $7.92 |
| 10-13 07:57 | Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 13? | BUY | 0.99 | $168.30 |
| 10-12 22:53 | Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 12? | BUY | 0.99 | $13.17 |
| 10-12 10:22 | Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 12? | BUY | 0.99 | $45.54 |
| 10-12 08:47 | Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 12? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 10-11 12:44 | Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 11? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 10-11 12:44 | Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 11? | BUY | 0.99 | $97.02 |
| 10-11 11:57 | Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 11? | BUY | 0.99 | $64.30 |
| 10-11 07:55 | Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 11? | BUY | 0.988 | $14.77 |
| 10-11 07:29 | Will it rain in Miami, FL on October 11? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.80 |
| 10-11 01:56 | Will it rain in Seattle, WA on October 10? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 10-11 00:43 | Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 10? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 10-10 06:54 | Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 10? | BUY | 0.988 | $39.62 |
| 10-07 18:52 | Will it rain in Miami, FL on October 7? | BUY | 0.99 | $13.86 |