PeterSagan
0x198fa74120438fb7cabccb61aa824c6720dfc419
- Realised P&L
- $-425.5k
- Volume
- $30.46M
- Markets traded
- 3,696
- Open portfolio
- $1.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,696
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.001 | $1.00 | −$10.93 |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.001 | $0.69 | −$36.72 |
| Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot · Jiri Lehecka | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-31? · No | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.9k |
| Raiders vs. Jets · Jets | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$645.61 |
| Will Celtic FC win on 2026-11-01? · Yes | 0.159 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$435.76 |
| Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur · Alexander Zverev | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.9k |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-31? · Yes | 0.328 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
| Chargers vs. Rams · Chargers | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Will Australia win? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$175.00 |
| Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.225 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.2k |
| Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) · Chelsea FC | 0.439 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.2k |
| Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 · Over | 0.307 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.0k |
| Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-2.5) · Tottenham Hotspur FC | 0.456 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$80.1kat 0.323T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1)
- +$55.4kat 0.407Pistons vs. Knicks
- +$48.4kat 0.093Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider
- +$47.8kat 0.471T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1)
- +$45.1kat 0.292Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:08 | Chargers vs. Rams | BUY | 0.077608076 | $1.3k |
| 11-01 23:06 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.1k |
| 11-01 19:45 | Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.0069894577 | $6.63 |
| 11-01 18:47 | Titans vs. Bengals | BUY | 0.68 | $1.4k |
| 11-01 17:59 | Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.61 | $245.77 |
| 11-01 16:34 | Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.33 | $4.92 |
| 10-31 14:03 | Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.4538758073 | $1.8k |
| 10-31 13:11 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.9k |
| 10-31 13:06 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.61 | $1.1k |
| 10-31 11:04 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.8k |
| 10-31 10:28 | Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Harriet Dart | BUY | 0.5652366221 | $528.04 |
| 10-31 09:57 | Will the match end in a draw? | BUY | 0.95 | $0.08 |
| 10-30 21:41 | Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-10-30? | BUY | 0.8595217204 | $6.7k |
| 10-30 13:23 | Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Han Shi | SELL | 0.82 | $8.1k |
| 10-30 12:32 | Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Han Shi | BUY | 0.59 | $100.05 |