0x19800f4E79a4b6865cF07F5DacDF7Eb0475E1A7B-1764893730709
0x19800f4e79a4b6865cf07f5dacdf7eb0475e1a7b
- Realised P&L
- $-74.82
- Volume
- $4.0k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.738 | 0.925 | $1.4k | +$281.15 |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.028 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? · No | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.47at 0.860Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$0.70at 0.740SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
- +$0.65at 0.710Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$0.39at 0.838Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?
- +$0.18at 0.850Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 05:44 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 05:44 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.7374309567 | $1.1k |
| 10-15 08:46 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.75 | $21.00 |
| 09-22 12:25 | Discord IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.1011993961 | $9.72 |
| 09-22 12:25 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0339444482 | $10.06 |
| 09-16 20:07 | Discord IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.1086455973 | $10.00 |
| 09-16 19:44 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.068833682 | $20.00 |
| 06-19 05:55 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? | BUY | 0.0448785153 | $47.78 |
| 06-16 07:54 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3476820634 | $2.00 |
| 04-15 08:27 | Stripe IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.18 |
| 04-03 10:30 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7099999056 | $1.58 |
| 04-03 10:24 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? | SELL | 0.14594 | $1.46 |
| 03-02 20:57 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.5799994896 | $1.00 |
| 02-25 22:48 | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.78 |
| 02-06 05:07 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $0.28 |