0x19800f4E79a4b6865cF07F5DacDF7Eb0475E1A7B-1764893730709
0x19800f4e79a4b6865cf07f5dacdf7eb0475e1a7b
- Realised P&L
- $-63.32
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $30.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.064 | $18.82 | −$3.18 |
| Discord IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.125 | 0.102 | $9.75 | −$2.25 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.755 | $1.68 | +$0.10 |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.037 | $0.08 | −$0.92 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? · No | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.47at 0.860Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$0.70at 0.740SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
- +$0.39at 0.838Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?
- +$0.18at 0.850Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January?
- +$0.18at 0.850Cardano ETF in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 20:07 | Discord IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.1086455973 | $10.00 |
| 09-16 19:44 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.068833682 | $20.00 |
| 06-19 05:55 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? | BUY | 0.0448785153 | $47.78 |
| 06-16 07:54 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3476820634 | $2.00 |
| 04-15 08:27 | Stripe IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.18 |
| 04-03 10:30 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7099999056 | $1.58 |
| 04-03 10:24 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? | SELL | 0.14594 | $1.46 |
| 03-02 20:57 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.5799994896 | $1.00 |
| 02-25 22:48 | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.78 |
| 02-06 05:07 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $0.28 |
| 02-02 21:36 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |
| 02-02 20:27 | Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? | BUY | 0.0419999612 | $1.00 |
| 02-01 16:35 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 01-29 15:52 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? | BUY | 0.8379999573 | $2.00 |
| 01-03 12:05 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |