cr1mean
0x197cb77ee9e7c1a648ac341ce52c98884c6a9b94
- Realised P&L
- $-20.2k
- Volume
- $2.03M
- Markets traded
- 430
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded430
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.494 | 0.180 | $1.8k | −$3.1k |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.032 | $15.75 | −$64.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.3kat 0.217Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?
- +$6.3kat 0.792Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$3.0kat 0.130Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$2.8kat 0.836Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale?
- +$2.8kat 0.886Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:58 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.16 | $30.03 |
| 11-01 20:23 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.08 | $15.49 |
| 11-01 04:22 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $39.96 |
| 10-31 13:26 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.450155042 | $871.03 |
| 10-30 15:57 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M? | SELL | 0.0011789046 | $1.18 |
| 10-30 15:31 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M? | BUY | 0.997 | $4.6k |
| 10-30 14:17 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6511170342 | $427.50 |
| 10-30 10:40 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? | SELL | 0.28 | $9.51 |
| 10-29 22:31 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M? | BUY | 0.995 | $4.7k |
| 10-29 21:26 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M? | BUY | 0.9672093401 | $4.5k |
| 10-29 19:14 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.1k |
| 10-29 19:13 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.0k |
| 10-29 17:44 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7946235049 | $328.20 |
| 10-29 07:37 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M? | SELL | 0.9511926112 | $711.13 |
| 10-29 07:36 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? | SELL | 0.35 | $86.78 |