HerlihyM92
0x197040709ae61627d3685a8d6ce1f9e82e6b398d
- Realised P&L
- $39.2k
- Volume
- $1.25M
- Markets traded
- 556
- Open portfolio
- $51.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded556
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.4kat 0.061Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$5.2kat 0.909Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$3.2kat 0.238Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$3.1kat 0.926Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
- +$2.9kat 0.397Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 17:16 | Will Derry City FC win on 2026-10-30? | BUY | 0.39 | $312.00 |
| 10-25 13:10 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.92 | $11.5k |
| 10-09 14:51 | Manchester City punishment announced by October 23? | BUY | 0.9176675921 | $988.32 |
| 10-02 21:15 | Will Shelbourne be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division? | BUY | 0.8984810127 | $212.94 |
| 10-01 12:05 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $14.7k |
| 09-29 00:55 | Will Waterford be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division? | BUY | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 09-29 00:54 | Will Sligo Rovers be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division? | BUY | 0.99 | $80.19 |
| 09-29 00:52 | Manchester City punishment announced by December 4? | BUY | 0.57 | $57.00 |
| 09-29 00:51 | Manchester City punishment announced by October 23? | BUY | 0.8851194539 | $207.47 |
| 09-29 00:50 | Manchester City punishment announced by October 9? | BUY | 0.9247882321 | $202.28 |
| 09-29 00:50 | Manchester City punishment announced by December 18? | BUY | 0.4733333333 | $85.20 |
| 09-17 10:13 | Will Sligo Rovers be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division? | BUY | 0.9628280359 | $295.35 |
| 09-17 09:45 | Will Sligo Rovers be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division? | BUY | 0.9762526694 | $86.86 |
| 09-17 09:45 | Will Sligo Rovers be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division? | BUY | 0.9312002181 | $375.75 |
| 09-15 00:14 | Will “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series? | BUY | 0.04514705 | $9.03 |