HerlihyM92
0x197040709ae61627d3685a8d6ce1f9e82e6b398d
- Realised P&L
- $39.1k
- Volume
- $1.20M
- Markets traded
- 539
- Open portfolio
- $24.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded539
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.4kat 0.061Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$5.2kat 0.909Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$3.2kat 0.238Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$3.1kat 0.926Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
- +$2.9kat 0.397Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 00:14 | Will “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series? | BUY | 0.04514705 | $9.03 |
| 08-24 06:04 | Nick Fuentes and Sophie Rain confirmed relationship by September 30? | BUY | 0.991 | $92.16 |
| 08-13 21:30 | Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.45 |
| 08-13 21:27 | Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000? | BUY | 0.32 | $48.00 |
| 08-08 11:38 | Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? | SELL | 0.24 | $48.00 |
| 07-16 23:35 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.968 | $37.45 |
| 07-15 07:42 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.937 | $32.78 |
| 07-14 21:02 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.27 | $18.90 |
| 07-14 20:21 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.54 |
| 07-14 20:20 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2691307524 | $22.11 |
| 07-14 20:07 | Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.17 | $25.50 |
| 07-07 21:09 | Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $6.00 |
| 07-07 20:55 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.035 | $70.00 |
| 07-07 18:55 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.95 | $133.95 |
| 07-07 18:41 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.05 | $18.50 |