0x193df6f9a5619e811c93d969a1f44d621629feeb
- Realised P&L
- $245.47
- Volume
- $20.7k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $327.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.366 | $208.10 | +$159.47 |
| Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? · Yes | 0.471 | 0.610 | $85.50 | +$19.43 |
| Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.675 | 0.660 | $27.11 | −$0.61 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.184 | $6.92 | +$1.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$73.15at 0.607Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
- +$37.72at 0.612Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
- +$36.80at 0.709Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
- +$34.55at 0.535Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
- +$34.45at 0.659Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 21:32 | Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.20 |
| 09-14 08:58 | Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BUY | 0.6365050783 | $7.03 |
| 09-14 08:58 | Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999946 | $29.94 |
| 09-14 08:51 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.047 | $41.73 |
| 09-05 10:03 | Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6799999493 | $3.22 |
| 09-05 10:03 | Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6799999921 | $10.39 |
| 09-05 10:03 | Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.67 | $14.11 |
| 08-26 08:08 | Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999936 | $29.10 |
| 08-24 08:31 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $58.50 |
| 08-07 17:38 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1509999802 | $5.66 |
| 08-07 17:37 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BUY | 0.7608823436 | $5.97 |
| 08-07 17:36 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BUY | 0.739999998 | $37.53 |
| 07-13 00:18 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0269999989 | $23.97 |
| 07-07 12:18 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0856437902 | $48.63 |
| 07-07 12:17 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.72 | $51.55 |