Escumish
0x19243fa24e3a6097d1145680259dde028650dff3
- Realised P&L
- $-4.9k
- Volume
- $292.3k
- Markets traded
- 2,286
- Open portfolio
- $174.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,286
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? · No | 0.860 | 0.795 | $172.63 | −$14.11 |
| Will Tyson Bagent finish as a top-5 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.014 | $0.91 | −$3.01 |
| Will Mike Evans be the first WR to 1,000 receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.017 | $0.68 | −$1.39 |
| Will Joe Flacco finish as a top-12 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.022 | $0.56 | −$0.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$262.00at 0.110US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
- +$139.56at 0.135US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
- +$105.80at 0.100Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
- +$105.39at 0.095Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$98.49at 0.061Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 17:09 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 10-01 17:03 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? | BUY | 0.13 | $2.60 |
| 10-01 16:07 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31? | BUY | 0.956 | $19.12 |
| 10-01 15:49 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | BUY | 0.1274206309 | $2.47 |
| 10-01 15:20 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.04 |
| 10-01 15:09 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $113.75 |
| 10-01 13:45 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in October? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.80 |
| 10-01 13:25 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 10-01 12:54 | Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 15? | BUY | 0.97 | $19.40 |
| 10-01 11:45 | Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 102.00 in October? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.80 |
| 10-01 11:08 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? | SELL | 0.91 | $0.27 |
| 10-01 10:55 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? | BUY | 0.94 | $21.62 |
| 10-01 10:27 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $2.82 |
| 10-01 10:13 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.20 |
| 10-01 10:07 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $18.60 |