0x19096cf7589bff874190e667955fa5d65d21f8b4
0x19096cf7589bff874190e667955fa5d65d21f8b4
- Realised P&L
- $142.25
- Volume
- $10.0k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $25.04
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 25? · No | 0.925 | 1.000 | $20.54 | +$1.54 |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $4.50 | −$4.49 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 on August 22? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$149.46at 0.119Will XRP reach $1.60 August 17-23?
- +$11.62at 0.099Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on August 19?
- +$0.01at 0.996Will Solana reach $140 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-31 21:47 | Will Solana reach $140 in August? | SELL | 0.998 | $9.01 |
| 08-25 14:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 25? | BUY | 0.9251308866 | $19.00 |
| 08-22 17:09 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 on August 22? | BUY | 0.0339999983 | $19.00 |
| 08-21 09:34 | Will XRP reach $1.60 August 17-23? | BUY | 0.1119999949 | $19.00 |
| 08-19 21:01 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on August 19? | SELL | 0.2313950605 | $22.39 |
| 08-19 18:16 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $9.00 |
| 08-19 18:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on August 19? | BUY | 0.0929999912 | $9.00 |
| 08-18 08:43 | Will Solana reach $140 in August? | BUY | 0.9959999526 | $9.00 |