0x1902a48aA912d1908E6EceB2D21BeA2b40cC02d0-1758900833346
0x1902a48aa912d1908e6eceb2d21bea2b40cc02d0
- Realised P&L
- $-48.37
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $24.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by August 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.805 | $24.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.228 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.68 |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.80 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? · Yes | 0.607 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.80 |
| Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 28, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.811 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.23 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.428 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.56at 0.720Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28?
- +$29.50at 0.541Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28?
- +$19.34at 0.617Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
- +$13.42at 0.870Will Russia enter Borova by March 31?
- +$9.32at 0.840Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 09:09 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by August 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $24.00 |
| 07-08 07:30 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.428 | $34.68 |
| 07-07 15:57 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.249 | $1.25 |
| 07-07 15:54 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 07-07 15:07 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.811315 | $16.23 |
| 07-06 20:42 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.616 | $26.62 |
| 07-06 09:26 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.284 | $2.84 |
| 07-06 08:25 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.528 | $5.28 |
| 07-06 08:03 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.538 | $10.76 |
| 07-06 07:29 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 07-05 15:43 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.312 | $6.24 |
| 07-05 06:07 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.228 | $11.40 |
| 07-04 08:12 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.135 | $2.70 |
| 07-03 14:43 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.964 | $14.46 |
| 07-03 14:37 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $19.24 |