fourofakind
0x18e157e46f9c7386cea37877e38a039bb169a55a
- Realised P&L
- $-3.7k
- Volume
- $211.8k
- Markets traded
- 91
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded91
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? · Yes | 0.939 | 0.971 | $1.5k | +$48.56 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.295 | $1.2k | −$20.41 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30? · Yes | 0.992 | 0.999 | $452.10 | +$3.02 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.915 | $226.92 | +$13.64 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.275 | $63.38 | −$12.68 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.965 | 0.993 | $11.42 | +$0.32 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? · Yes | 0.975 | 0.976 | $5.08 | +$0.00 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? · Yes | 0.831 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.740US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
- +$302.26at 0.969Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
- +$172.72at 0.990Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
- +$166.17at 0.980Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?
- +$151.52at 0.985Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 06:16 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.2k |
| 11-01 02:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | BUY | 0.975 | $5.08 |
| 10-31 12:53 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $72.36 |
| 10-31 03:33 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.86 | $213.28 |
| 10-31 03:31 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $213.25 |
| 10-30 00:19 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.3526205435 | $42.43 |
| 10-29 07:56 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.967 | $156.65 |
| 10-29 07:56 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.967 | $1.2k |
| 10-29 07:56 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.9725896226 | $412.38 |
| 10-29 07:56 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $119.93 |
| 10-29 07:55 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.995 | $749.55 |
| 10-29 07:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30? | BUY | 0.9899504045 | $329.15 |
| 10-29 07:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.51 |
| 10-05 12:02 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $5.9k |
| 09-06 09:45 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $188.00 |