fourofakind
0x18e157e46f9c7386cea37877e38a039bb169a55a
- Realised P&L
- $-3.8k
- Volume
- $164.4k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $12.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.875 | $6.6k | +$1.0k |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.962 | 0.989 | $3.7k | +$100.05 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.985 | $2.2k | +$101.42 |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes | 0.612 | 0.750 | $160.42 | +$29.43 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? · Yes | 0.831 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$172.72at 0.990Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
- +$151.52at 0.985Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
- +$128.80at 0.977Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?
- +$92.30at 0.979Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
- +$86.94at 0.940US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 09:45 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $188.00 |
| 09-06 09:34 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $12.72 |
| 09-06 09:33 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $28.74 |
| 08-28 03:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.4k |
| 08-28 03:02 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $5.4k |
| 08-28 02:58 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $82.63 |
| 08-28 02:58 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $6.90 |
| 08-26 00:03 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.88 | $3.6k |
| 08-26 00:03 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.9787308132 | $4.2k |
| 08-23 00:39 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.9k |
| 08-22 23:19 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.5k |
| 08-20 02:52 | Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | BUY | 0.998 | $26.42 |
| 08-15 02:01 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $17.4k |
| 08-03 08:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.6k |
| 08-02 13:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.991 | $95.04 |